On February 3, 2025, EXRO announced that its innovative technology is being installed and tested on an International eMV truck. Detailed in the press release/shareholder letter and shared via an X post from EXRO Technologies, the current development is currently limited to this single trial unit, but the press release also notes that if the test proves successful, EXRO is targeting production as early as 2026.
Our Grimes, Iowa facility just welcomed an eMV truck from International. We’re gearing up to replace its e-powertrain with our proprietary Coil Driver™ technology, demonstrating unmatched efficiency, performance, and our new-to-the-world charging capability. Stay tuned!
— Exro Technologies (@exrotech) February 3, 2025
Although early indications are promising, it is important to note that no large-scale commercial agreement has been finalized at this stage.
Understanding the Testing Scope: Coil Driver or Full SEA Drive?
EXRO’s pilot test on the International eMV truck would be a key technology upgrade for the brand. However, the details remain unclear. The X post states that EXRO is “replacing the powertrain.” Yet, it only names the Coil Driver. The Coil Driver is essential for the new A/C fast charging capability. These details suggests that the test might involve the complete SEA Drive system, but the exact scope is not clear.
Sadly, EXRO has a history of ambiguous communication. This lack of clear details makes it hard to know if the trial covers just the Coil Driver or the full SEA Drive system. In an industry that values technical precision and clear communication, such vagueness is unwelcome in communications. Transparent information is vital for building trust with shareholders. This ambiguity is seen as a negative point by some investors and industry observers.
Using simple language and clear terms is crucial for EXRO’s audience. As they move forward, we can only hope for more detailed and transparent updates.
So, who exactly is International?
International has a rich history spanning more than a century. It began in 1902 with the merger of the McCormick Harvesting Machine Company and the Deering Harvester Company. The new firm used its expertise in harvesters to enter auto manufacturing. Over time, the company merged, diverged, and partnered with many firms. It produced pickup trucks, tractors, farm machinery, buses, and heavy trucks up to Class 8.
In 2016, the company operated as Navistar. That year, it launched a joint venture with Volkswagen Truck and Bus (now Traton). In 2021, TRATON purchased all remaining shares of Navistar. In September 2024, Navistar was renamed International Motors LLC. For this article, the names International and Navistar are interchangeable.
See the visual below for the Traton Group companies.
---
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flowchart:
layout: fixed
layout: fixed
---
flowchart TD
VW["Volkswagen Group"] --> Traton["Traton Group"]
Traton --> MAN["MAN"] & International["International Trucks - Navistar"] & VW_TruckBus["Volkswagen Truck & Bus"] & Scania["Scania"]
MAN --> MAN_A["Available:<br>MAN eTGE: electric van<br>MAN Lion s City E: electric bus"] & MAN_B["In Development:<br>MAN eTruck: electric heavy-duty truck expected 2024"]
International --> International_A["Available:<br>International eMV Series: electric medium-duty truck"] & International_B["In Development:<br>Electric heavy-duty trucks expected by 2025"] & IC_Bus["IC Bus"]
VW_TruckBus --> VW_TruckBus_A["Available:<br>e-Delivery: electric truck<br>e-Consortium: electric bus"] & VW_TruckBus_B["In Development:<br>Additional electric commercial vehicles in pipeline"]
Scania --> Scania_A["Available:<br>Scania Citywide LF Electric: electric bus<br>Scania 25P slash 25L: electric trucks"] & Scania_B["In Development:<br>Additional electric trucks and buses expected by 2025"]
IC_Bus --> IC_A["Available:<br>IC Bus CE Series: electric school bus"] & IC_B["In Development:<br>Expanding electric bus lineup"]
VW:::Rose
Traton:::Pine
International:::highlight
International_A:::highlight
IC_Bus:::Sky
IC_Bus:::highlight
IC_A:::highlight
classDef Rose stroke-width:1px, stroke-dasharray:none, stroke:#FF5978, fill:#FFDFE5, color:#8E2236
classDef Pine stroke-width:1px, stroke-dasharray:none, stroke:#254336, fill:#27654A, color:#FFFFFF
classDef Sky stroke-width:1px, stroke-dasharray:none, stroke:#374D7C, fill:#E2EBFF, color:#374D7C
classDef highlight fill:#ffeb3b, stroke:#f44336, stroke-width:2px
style VW color:#D50000
Click here for a larger version of this chart.
What is the possible near-term impact of success in this testing?
In Q4 2024, Traton group reported that International Motors sold 150 all-electric vehicles. The company sold a total of 610 all-electric vehicles for the full year. However, the interim report does not clarify if these figures include both trucks and buses or only trucks.
If the Sea-Drive™ were to go into production in 2026 in those vehicles, this volume could boost EXRO’s revenue significantly. With a sale price of $CA150,000 to $CA175,000 per unit (based on existing EXRO numbers on Sea-Drive™), revenue could increase between $CA90 million and $CA105 million. This boost would come when EXRO is expected to be profitable and have maximized its production efficiency.
International (via Traton) is not due to release its full-year report for 2024 until March 10. Meanwhile, Traton’s 2023 report contains useful details. These statements below show Traton’s strong commitment to electric vehicles and offer important insights for EXRO investors.
- “Navistar will also offer an electric variant for the new generation of the CE Series from its IC Bus brand.”
- “Our brands are continuing to expand their product and service portfolio and supporting their customers in switching to battery electric vehicles. The new Navistar plant in San Antonio was designed from the outset with the capacity to manufacture electric models as well.”
- “Navistar also made charging network progress in 2023. It launched a new partnership with Quanta Services, a large company operating in the field of power grid infrastructure solutions in North America. Navistar will work together with Quanta to offer a comprehensive vehicle and charging infrastructure solution to the customers of its International Truck and IC Bus brands that will allow them to add battery electric vehicles to their fleets quickly and efficiently”
- “Like the entire TRATON GROUP, Navistar also believes the future of transportation is battery electric. Major customers are already showing interest in the new technology. For example, in 2023 Navistar announced the delivery of the first vehicles in the International eMV Series to Sysco, a food distribution company”
- “Navistar’s research and development expenditures increased in 2023, mainly on the back of investments in electrification and autonomous driving.”
- “The market relevant to Navistar’s business is the segment comprising weight Classes 6 through 8“
- Navistar sold a total of 75,532 Trucks and 13,358 Busses (Not broken into ICE and Electric)
- “one element of Navistar’s annual incentive measured dealer readiness to sell and support electric vehicles. Navistar strives to achieve 50% new battery electric vehicle sales by 2030 and 100% by 2040 for the US market”
A successful test and agreement on the International eMV could pave the way for deals with other Traton Group brands. In 2024, the other Traton brands sold 1,130 all-electric vehicles. When combined with International’s sales, the total reached 1,740 units.
What about IC Bus?
IC Bus is part of the International brand. Signs suggest that EXRO had already started working with IC Bus before the recent International announcement. An X post from June 20, 2024 showed a bus with an obviously obfuscated badge. The hidden badge matches the size and shape of the International logo. This hints at early ties between EXRO and IC Bus.
Enabling electrification with Exro’s leading propulsion system technology, improving total cost of ownership and making repowering diesel fleets affordable and efficient.
Meet the 100% Electric Powered by Exro School Bus
— Exro Technologies (@exrotech) June 20, 2024
We believe the newly announced agreement with International is very important. It signals that results from the bus program may have paved the way for this deal. This reinforces the proven benefits of the Coil Driver™ and could spur further growth opportunities for EXRO.
Walk with us a bit.
So far, we have focused on the Traton group. Success in this trial may extend to other Traton brands. But now, let’s look one level higher. Traton is a subsidiary of Volkswagen. Volkswagen is one of the world’s largest car makers. If the Coil Driver™ succeeds, it may soon benefit Volkswagen’s passenger car brands. Below is a (non-exhaustive) list of the brands and electric models under the Volkswagen banner.
mindmap
Volkswagen
Volkswagen Passenger Vehicles
Available<br>VW ID.3: compact electric hatchback <br>VW ID.4: compact electric SUV <br>VW ID.5: coupe‑style electric SUV <br>VW ID. Buzz: electric MPV <br>VW ID.7: sedan expected to replace Passat <br>VW e-Golf: discontinued but available <br>VW e-Up!: small city car
In Development<br>VW ID.2: expected 2025, affordable EV <br>VW ID.1: expected 2026, compact EV <br>VW ID. Buzz GTX: high-performance version expected 2024 <br>VW ID.7 Tourer: station wagon version expected 2024 <br>VW ID.8: larger electric SUV expected 2026 <br>VW Trinity Project: next‑gen sedan expected 2026
Audi
Available<br>Audi e-tron: mid‑size SUV <br>e-tron Sportback: coupe variant <br>Q4 e-tron: compact SUV <br>Q4 Sportback e-tron: coupe variant <br>e-tron GT: sports sedan
In Development<br>Audi A6 e-tron: expected 2024 <br>Audi Q6 e-tron: expected 2024 <br>Audi A4 e-tron: expected 2025
SEAT
Available<br>SEAT Born: based on VW MEB platform
In Development<br>Future electric versions of existing models
Cupra
Available<br>Cupra Born: sporty electric hatchback <br>Cupra Tavascan: electric SUV coupe expected 2024
In Development<br>Cupra UrbanRebel: compact electric car expected 2025
Skoda
Available<br>Skoda Enyaq iV: mid‑size SUV <br>Skoda Enyaq Coupe iV: coupe variant
In Development<br>Skoda Elroq: compact electric SUV expected 2024 <br>Skoda Vision 7S: large electric SUV expected 2026
Bentley
Available<br>Bentley Bentayga Hybrid: plug‑in hybrid SUV
In Development<br>Bentley’s first fully electric model expected 2025
Bugatti
In Development<br>Exploring hybrid and electric powertrains
Lamborghini
Available<br>Lamborghini Revuelto: hybrid
In Development<br>Lamborghini Lanzador: fully electric 2+2 GT expected 2028
Porsche
Available<br>Porsche Taycan: electric sports sedan <br>Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo: wagon variant <br>Porsche Macan EV: electric SUV expected 2024
In Development<br>Porsche 718 EV: expected 2025 <br>Porsche Cayenne EV: expected 2026
Ducati
In Development<br>Ducati’s first electric motorcycle expected by 2025
A Big Opportunity, But Caution Is Key
The pilot test shows great promise. If successful, production could start as early as 2026. That means tens of millions in new revenue for EXRO. Success could lead to deals across the Traton Group and even with Volkswagen’s passenger brands.
However, this is still an early trial. No major commercial agreement is in place yet. Many challenges remain before EXRO would see full-scale production. We urge shareholders to watch these developments with cautious optimism. The potential is big, but there is still much to prove.
Do you have thoughts or comments? Skip on over to this post on reddit and join the discussion.
